Pregnancy is predictable: a large-scale prospective external validation of the prediction of spontaneous pregnancy in subfertile couples.
BACKGROUND: Prediction models for spontaneous pregnancy may be useful tools to select subfertile couples that have good fertility prospects and should therefore be counselled for expectant management. We assessed the accuracy of a recently published prediction model for spontaneous pregnancy in a large prospective validation study.
METHODS: In 38 centres, we studied a consecutive cohort of subfertile couples, referred for an infertility work-up. Patients had a regular menstrual cycle, patent tubes and a total motile sperm count (TMC) less than 3 x 10(6). After the infertility work-up had been completed, we used a prediction model to calculate the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy ( www.freya.nl/probability.php ).
The primary end-point was time until the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy within 1 year. The performance of the pregnancy prediction model was assessed with calibration, which is the comparison of predicted and observed ongoing pregnancy rates for groups of patients and discrimination.
CONCLUSIONS: As the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy among subfertile couples can be accurately calculated, this prediction model can be used as an essential tool for clinical decision-making and in counselling patients. The use of the prediction model may help to prevent unnecessary treatment.
Full article: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16997935
Miscarriage stories of loss, hope & help
Stories of Pregnancy & Birth over 44y
- Daily blog of hope & inspiration!
4,650 Stories of Pregnancy & Birth over 44y
Daily blog of hope & inspiration!
Recent Keyword Searches: how old can you be and still get pregnant, poor ovarian response. this is also known as poor ovarian function, poor ovarian reserve,, first time mom 40, ovary stimulation in ivf, can i get pregnant in my 40's naturally